Hormuz LPG Shuttle Shipments Forecast to Fall 59% in October

The sharpest change in the Strait of Hormuz LPG data is concentrated in one shipping model: shuttle exports tied to ship-to-ship transfers. Kpler expects those movements to average 177,000 barrels per day in October, down from 432,000 barrels per day in September. That’s a projected decline of 255,000 barrels a day, or about 59%—a steep change in a single month, even though it covers only one part of the trade.

The October figure is a forecast, not a completed monthly total. Kpler says later identification of transits made with automatic identification system (AIS) equipment switched off could lift the estimate. A recovery in movements during the second half of the month is also possible, though the data provider still expects October to be weak for these transfers. The estimate should therefore be read as a current view of a moving count, rather than a final measure of cargoes delivered.

The figures cover a defined shipping flow

The 432,000 and 177,000 barrels-per-day figures don’t represent every LPG shipment passing through Hormuz. They refer specifically to shuttle transportation exports connected to ship-to-ship transfers. That distinction matters when comparing the numbers with broader trade totals or assessing how much LPG is moving through the strait as a whole. A sharp drop in one flow can be consequential for logistics without establishing an equivalent decline in all regional exports.

In this model, vessels associated with Gulf producers load LPG at ports in the region and carry cargoes to transfer points outside the strait, where other vessels can take them onward. The transfer separates the initial regional voyage from the onward leg, creating a distinct shipping flow that can be tracked in its own right. Kpler says this activity had been increasing since June, before transfers fell sharply amid renewed attacks on commercial vessels in October.

A change in shuttle activity can affect reported transportation volumes even when underlying production, export plans or destination demand haven’t changed in the same way. The monthly figures can also reflect loading schedules, vessel availability and alternative logistics arrangements. If cargoes are delayed, moved through another arrangement or recorded later, the data may shift without a matching change in the amount of LPG ultimately sought by buyers. Kpler’s data therefore points to a steep contraction in this particular flow, but doesn’t establish that security incidents alone account for the entire decline.

Vessel planning faces added constraints

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a key route for energy exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Renewed risks to commercial vessels have prompted shipping operators to reassess voyage plans. For gas carriers, the practical considerations include vessel safety, insurance terms and port operations, each of which can affect whether a planned movement proceeds on its original schedule.

When operators reconsider whether and how to transit, the effects can show up in transfer activity, voyage timing and cargo availability. The resulting pressure isn’t always visible as a simple count of fewer shipments: a change in timing can also alter when cargoes appear in market data and when buyers can count on them. For shippers and buyers, that makes the distinction between a projected monthly average and confirmed completed movements especially relevant.

Shippers and buyers tracking Gulf LPG flows should keep the scope of Kpler’s measure in view: a slowdown in the shuttle segment is a significant signal, but it isn’t a complete count of all regional exports. This is more significant than it looks for planners who depend on that particular transfer chain, though the data alone can’t show how much of the wider supply picture has changed.

Asian supply and freight indicators diverge

Kpler analyst Nils Jenson said the lower shipments have tightened LPG supply in the Asian market. The timing adds pressure: Gulf volumes are declining during a period of seasonal demand growth, contributing to upward pressure on prices in the Far East. That combination can make the timing of arrivals matter alongside the total volume, particularly for buyers trying to match supply with rising seasonal requirements.

Freight rates for very large LPG carriers (VLGCs) have edged lower, but remain historically high. Baltic Exchange data put the spot market daily earnings indicator for voyages from the region to Japan at $258,000 on October 8; it later slipped to $256,000. The small decrease in that indicator sits alongside the sharper expected fall in shuttle volumes, so the two measures describe different parts of the trade. One reflects earnings for a specified voyage market; the other tracks a defined transfer flow.

That said, the freight indicator doesn’t erase the supply concern. Lower earnings on the cited route could coexist with high costs and constraints elsewhere in the chain, while a fall in shuttle volumes could affect the availability or timing of cargoes. The figures provided don’t establish a direct cause between the two trends. They do show why operators and buyers need to read freight and cargo movement data together, while keeping their different scopes clear.

What to watch in the October tally

For operators and cargo planners, the useful read is to track transfer volumes alongside vessel earnings and the timing of Gulf loadings. If you’re working in this space, the practical question is whether later identification of AIS-off transits or a second-half recovery changes the estimate enough to alter expectations for arrivals and supply. Here’s the thing: neither possibility is confirmed in the current forecast.

October’s estimate may rise as AIS-off transits are identified, and later-month activity could improve the tally. Those revisions would change the reported scale of the decline, but they wouldn’t necessarily remove the underlying signal that Kpler expects a weak month for Hormuz-linked LPG transfers. (And this is the part most people overlook: the headline percentage is tied to a particular transport model.)

Asian buyers are facing tighter supply during a seasonal demand increase, while the available freight indicator has eased only slightly and remains historically high. The data leaves room for revision, and it doesn’t settle how the full month will compare with September across all LPG exports. For now, the clearest reading is a pronounced expected slowdown in shuttle transfers, with the broader supply implications dependent on cargo timing and other regional movements. A narrow measure. Still a useful signal.

Source: SeaNews Türkiye