Western Black Sea Forecast Keeps Strong Winds and Waves in Focus

Strong winds remain a planning concern for vessels in the Western Black Sea on Oct. 19, even as a separate storm warning covering the previous period is set to expire that morning. The three-day marine forecast from Turkey’s General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) calls for winds reaching 8 Beaufort in the eastern part of the region during the early hours, with waves rising to 3 meters in some western areas.

That combination keeps conditions relevant for fishing boats, small vessels and coastal transport. The forecast also warns that rain showers and thunderstorms may reduce visibility, adding another factor for crews assessing whether and when to sail.

Western Black Sea conditions on Oct. 19

MGM’s marine forecast bulletin No. 292, dated Oct. 19, puts winds in the Western Black Sea at 5 to 7 Beaufort from the south and southwest. In the western parts, winds are forecast at 4 to 6 Beaufort. Farther east, they could strengthen to 6 to 8 Beaufort in the early morning.

Wave heights across the Black Sea are expected to range from 1 to 2 meters. Some areas in the western part of the basin could see waves reaching 3 meters. Those figures describe a forecast range across the region; local conditions may differ, so vessel operators need to check the conditions for their route and departure time.

For smaller craft, wind strength and wave height matter together. A vessel facing stronger winds may also encounter steeper or more difficult seas, while reduced visibility in showers can make navigation harder. The source forecast does not specify which locations will see the highest waves or when the visibility will be poorest, so crews should use updated local conditions alongside the regional outlook.

Earlier warning ends, but the forecast still calls for a storm

The forecast follows a strong storm that affected the Black Sea over the weekend. MGM’s warning No. 519, published Oct. 16, covered winds of 7 to 9 Beaufort in the Western and Central Black Sea from the night of Oct. 17. It gave possible wind speeds of 75 to 90 kilometers per hour and remained valid until 10 a.m. on Oct. 19.

The Oct. 19 marine forecast continues to anticipate storm conditions in the Western Black Sea, although it describes wind conditions during the day as different from the stronger storm of the preceding days. The end of warning No. 519 therefore marks the close of that warning’s stated validity period; it does not mean the day’s marine conditions are calm.

Fishing boats and other small vessels are among those the source identifies as facing particular risk from the forecast winds and waves. Operators planning trips into open water should review current wind and wave conditions before leaving port. Changes in visibility during rain are also relevant to navigation and trip planning.

Marmara and Aegean forecasts

The same outlook gives the Sea of Marmara south and southwest winds of 3 to 5 Beaufort, with waves between 0.5 and 1.5 meters. In the North Aegean, winds are forecast mainly at 2 to 4 Beaufort, reaching 5 Beaufort in some areas.

In the South Aegean, winds are expected from the north and northwest at 3 to 5 Beaufort. The southern parts could see 4 to 6 Beaufort. These regional figures provide a broader comparison with the stronger conditions forecast for parts of the Black Sea, but operators still need to account for conditions along their specific routes.

Conditions expected to ease Tuesday

For Tuesday, Oct. 20, MGM does not expect a storm in the Black Sea. In the Western Black Sea, winds are forecast to ease to 3 to 5 Beaufort, while wave heights are expected to remain between 1 and 2 meters. Rain and thunderstorms may persist in parts of the Eastern Black Sea.

The shift points to a less severe wind forecast on Tuesday, but the sea is still expected to carry waves, and showers may continue in the east. For operators scheduling departures across these two days, the practical takeaway is to check the latest local forecast before sailing, with particular attention to early-morning winds, wave conditions and visibility.

Source: SeaNews Türkiye